Fantasy football 2023 outlooks for Breece Hall, Cooper Kupp and more players returning from injury

Greg Scholz of Inside Injuries explains the health outlooks for several of the top skill position players who enter the 2023 NFL season following an injury-troubled 2022 campaign.

Tua Tagovailoa, QB, MIA

In the early stages of the 2022 season, Tagovailoa found himself near the top of a multitude of offensive leaderboards thanks in large part to his efficiency. It was a trend that continued through the season, but his stats were overshadowed by a series of outright scary concussions.

In short, a concussion is a form of traumatic brain injury often caused by a bump, blow, or jolt to the head. They can also be caused by a forceful hit to another part of the body that causes the head and brain to move rapidly back and forth (whiplash). These traumatic, sudden movements can cause the brain to bounce around or twist in the skull, causing chemical changes within the brain while also potentially stretching and damaging brain cells.

It’s impossible to understate how dangerous concussions can be. Long-term consequences can include cognitive impairments and permanent brain damage, especially if repeated concussions occur before full recovery from a prior injury. Second Impact Syndrome, where a second concussion occurs before the first has fully healed, can lead to fatal or permanently disabling brain swelling. There was some major concern that Tua may have battled this — more on that below.

Some players suffer from Post-Concussion Syndrome, experiencing lingering symptoms for weeks or months. We may also see changes in mood, temperament, and behavior. These symptoms can come from one singular concussion, but within the sports community, concussions are particularly troubling. Athletes might feel pressure to return to play prematurely and risk further injury — repeated concussions in this context have been linked to chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE), a serious degenerative brain condition.

Despite his MVP-caliber numbers, Tua’s 2022 season was overshadowed by these injuries. He was forced to sit out two early-season games before again being sidelined for Miami’s final two games (including a playoff loss) due to concussions. One of the major talking points was how the Dolphins handled his first concussion and how it relates to the aforementioned Second Impact Syndrome, eventually forcing the NFLPA to investigate the team and eventually revise the concussion protocol policy.

As Tua enters 2023, concussions will still remain a topic of conversation whenever his name is brought up. While his past concussions don’t necessarily make him more prone to head injuries in the future, he and the Dolphins are going to be under a microscope every week. The biggest things to look for will be how he protects himself — we’ve calculated his Injury Risk to be High — and how the team manages any potential injuries to him.

Lamar Jackson, QB, BAL

Similar to Tagovailoa, Lamar Jackson was on fire to start the year, leading the league in QBR and passing touchdowns during the first month of the 2022 NFL season. He was getting it done on the ground too, breaking Michael Vick’s record for the most 100-yard rushing games by a quarterback in NFL history after topping the century mark in Week 2 and Week 3. However, his stellar season skidded to a halt in Week 13 against the Denver Broncos when he suffered a sprained PCL.

The PCL, or posterior cruciate ligament, is one of the four main ligaments in the knee, helping to stabilize the joint. Besides being notoriously painful, a PCL sprain significantly limits lower body function due to increased instability, especially for someone with Jackson’s skill set.

While unfortunate, there was plenty of optimism that Jackson would return — Baltimore expected him to miss one to three weeks — and lead the team to a division title. But the weeks went by with little noise and Jackson ended up missing the Ravens’ final five games of the regular season. Baltimore snuck into the wild card playoff round, but Jackson was absent again.

Looking at the more positive side of things, Jackson has now had over seven months to rehab from an injury that didn’t require surgery. Additionally, Baltimore appears committed to not forcing him to play hero every week. They picked up Odell Beckham Jr. in free agency and drafted Zay Flowers. New OC Todd Monken also said that the team is going to focus on a more pass-centered offense, which should take some of the pressure off Jackson to scramble and pick up yards on every play.

Contract drama aside, Jackson and the Ravens are once again in a solid position to compete for a playoff spot in the AFC. Jackson’s Injury Risk is on the higher-side of Elevated and it will remain around there through the rest of training camp. Once we have a better idea of how he looks in the offense, that number should drop.

Breece Hall, RB, NYJ

When the Jets drafted Hall as the 36th overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, they knew they were getting one of the best young running backs available — and he didn’t disappoint. By Week 7, he was averaging 5.1 yards per carry, scored in three consecutive weeks, and was averaging 65.1 yards per game — a number that was steadily increasing every week.

In Week 7 against the Broncos, Hall was putting together a standout performance when he ruptured his ACL and injured the meniscus in his left knee.

The ACL, or anterior cruciate ligament, is another one of the four ligaments in the knee that provides stability. Recovery from a ruptured ACL almost always requires surgery, followed by a rigorous rehab program. Generally, we see athletes miss 9-14 months after an injury like this.

Currently, Hall is on the active/physically unable to perform list, but he could be ready for Week 1. Hall stated in January that he wanted to be ready for training camp, but recently Jets head coach Robert Saleh said it would still be a few weeks until Hall practices. All things considered, we don’t anticipate he will be active Week 1, but should be ready around Weeks 3-4.

There’s little doubt Hall has the talent and skill set to be one of the premier newcomers in the league, especially with new QB Aaron Rodgers under center. But his Injury Risk is High and will remain High for the foreseeable future.

Jonathan Taylor, RB, IND

There were only a handful of other players who entered the 2022 season with the amount of hype Taylor did. He was coming off an elite 2021 campaign, where he rushed for 1,811 yards, 18 touchdowns, and finished runner-up in Offensive Player of the Year voting.

He picked up right where he left off in Week 1, racking up 161 yards on the ground while scoring his first touchdown of the season. He wouldn’t rush for 100+ yards or score another touchdown again until Week 10. Taylor’s season was marked by ankle issues that eventually culminated in a season-ending high ankle sprain during Week 15.

A high ankle sprain is more severe than a standard sprain and is defined by the damage done to the syndesmotic ligaments that connect the tibia and fibula of the lower leg. These ligaments work to keep both the leg and the ankle stable. When damaged, the pain is felt through the ankle and up the leg, which makes all sorts of athletic movements difficult to execute. These sprains often take longer to heal and surgery can be required.

Taylor did undergo surgery in January 2023, but there appears to be some concern within the Colts organization about how well it’s healed and Taylor’s overall physical health. He was placed on the PUP list for the start of training camp and requested a trade amid, and adding to, the uncertainty.

Making matters worse is the reported back injury that Taylor is dealing with. He has adamantly denied the injury, which was said to have taken place while he was working out away from the team. The Colts, while vague, have insisted the injury is very real (I spoke a little about this in the most recent injury mailbag and why the Colts should not lie about the injury).

Of everyone on this list, Taylor’s 2023 seems the most murky. Not necessarily due to his injury — don’t get me wrong, it plays a role and there is concern — but more so due to the tension between him and the Colts. His Injury Risk is High, and that is factoring in the back injury, but he has the potential to drop into Elevated once we know more details.

Michael Thomas, WR, NO

For Thomas, this feels like a make-or-break season. His NFL journey started off spectacularly but it has since nosedived thanks to injury after injury, and setback after setback.

Most recently it was a dislocated toe that required surgery, but before we get into that, we have to acknowledge the fact that he battled a lingering ankle issue for two years, limiting him to just seven games from 2020-2021.

Thomas was finally cleared to play heading into the 2022 season and his teammates were singing his praises the whole time. It really looked like he was going to be a focal point of the offense alongside rookie Chris Olave. In the first three weeks of the season, he tallied 171 yards and three touchdowns. During the Saints’ Week 3 game against the Panthers, Thomas’ season came to an abrupt end after he left the game with a dislocated toe.

A toe dislocation might sound simple, but it’s a complex and painful injury where the bones in the toe are forced out of their normal position. Complicating things is the anatomy of the foot itself. There are a lot of important structures crammed in there, and a toe dislocation can damage these structures, as was the case with Thomas. To avoid further complications, Thomas underwent surgery, officially ending his season.

With the emergence of younger receivers like Olave and Rashid Shaheed, Thomas is no longer a WR1, but that doesn’t mean he’ll be an afterthought in the Saints offense. New QB Derek Carr has raved about him, and in a wide-open NFC South it could be Thomas who makes the biggest difference.

Heading into 2023, Thomas should probably be on a load management program. His Injury Risk is High and it will stay in that range for at least the first month of the season. Depending on how that goes, his numbers could dip into Elevated.

Cooper Kupp, WR, LAR

Kupp quietly put together a sterling 2022 season before he suffered his high ankle sprain in Week 10 against the Cardinals. At times, he looked like the only competent player in the Los Angeles offense, averaging 90.2 receiving yards per game. He finished the year with 75 receptions for 812 yards and six touchdowns in nine games.

I touched on what a high ankle sprain was in my segment about Jonathan Taylor, but to reiterate: a high ankle sprain is more complex than the regular ankle sprain most of us are more familiar with. It involves injury to the ligaments above the ankle that connect the two main bones of the lower leg.

Kupp underwent a procedure known as tightrope surgery in November 2022 to stabilize his ankle. In the past, high ankle sprains were treated using two metal screws to stabilize the fibula to the tibia. The rigidness of the screws means the ankle’s mobility is limited and a follow-up surgery is required to remove them. Tightrope surgery fixes this problem by stabilizing the ankle with a flexible, polyurethane cord. Because it is flexible, the ankle can move normally as it heals.

Things appeared to be going well for Kupp up until a week ago when it was reported that he was dealing with a hamstring strain. If you’ve followed any of the mailbags in the past, you know how much I try to emphasize how problematic hamstring strains can be in spite of their relatively non-serious sounding name.

The hamstrings are essential in almost every athletic movement, such as running, jumping, and quick directional changes. Basically, all of those movements are limited when someone is dealing with a hamstring strain. Furthermore, hamstring injuries often have a lengthy recovery time and are prone to re-injury, especially if not properly rehabilitated.

There haven’t been many updates regarding Kupp’s hamstring, but we will be keeping a very close eye on it. His Injury Risk was already High due to the sprain, but that number has only gone up thanks to the hamstring strain.

Kyle Pitts, TE, ATL

Despite racking up over 1,000 receiving yards as a rookie, Pitts’ production ceiling was stunted because he scored just one touchdown in 2021. His scoring woes continued through the early weeks of the 2022 season, as he hadn’t scored a touchdown by the time a hamstring injury ruled him out in Week 5. He managed to bounce back with his first touchdown of the season in Week 6 before his season was cut short in Week 11 by an MCL injury in his right knee.

Reports have varied on if the MCL was torn or severely sprained, however the consensus seems to be that it was the latter. The MCL (Medial Collateral Ligament) is a band of tissue on the inner part of your knee that helps to stabilize the joint, and a severe sprain like Pitts suffered is where the ligament is structurally compromised while remaining intact.

Generally, we don’t see too many long term concerns with this kind of injury because it is a strong ligament that tends to heal well on its own. That’s not to say Pitts won’t be limited in some capacity by the injury, though.

Looking ahead to 2023, Pitts’ Injury Risk is High, but that should steadily decrease in the coming weeks once he gets more practice reps under his belt. There might not be too many long term concerns, but it will be important to see how he moves on the knee and if he looks comfortable doing what he was doing pre-injury. Despite his limited production, his size and speed are highly valuable in the NFL and the Falcons should continue to utilize him as a key component in their young offense.

Zach Ertz, TE, ARI

Ertz’s most productive years may be behind him, but the 32-year-old still could be a productive member of a Cardinals team that looks bleak on paper. Despite playing in only 10 games last season, he finished the year with the fifth-most receiving yards on the team (406 yards).

He likely would have finished even higher on that list if it weren’t for the brutal knee injury he suffered in Week 10 against the Rams. That week, Ertz ruptured both the ACL and MCL in his left knee, ending his season.

The ACL (Anterior Cruciate Ligament) and MCL (Medial Collateral Ligament) are two of the most important ligaments in the knee. Both are stabilizers that are responsible for controlling sideways movement. Surgery is required to repair these ligaments when ruptured, and the following rehab regimen is highly intensive and can be excruciating.

Beyond the immediate physical challenges, there are some long-term implications for someone of Ertz’s age. Some athletes may never regain their pre-injury form, and the affected knee is at increased risk for arthritis later in life. His Injury Risk is, and will be, High for the first two months of the season at least.

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